As election day approaches on 5 November, voters in the US are gearing up to decide their next president in what could be a dramatic rematch of the 2020 election. With President Joe Biden’s campaign having ended and him endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, the big question is whether Harris can lead the race against Donald Trump, who is aiming for a second term. Recent polls show that Harris is currently ahead of Trump, a surprising turn as many expected Trump to dominate in the run-up to the election.
National polling averages indicate a shift, with Harris leading in many national polls since she officially entered the race at the end of July. The latest figures show Harris with a rounded percentage that keeps her in a favorable position against Trump. This shift could significantly affect the campaign and strategies as both candidates prepare for the final stretch toward the White House. Keeping track of these polls will be essential as the race heats up, revealing how public opinion might upend expectations and reshape the political landscape in America.
The recent televised debate on 10 September in Pennsylvania between Harris and Trump drew an impressive audience, with just over 67 million people tuned in to watch the two candidates go head to head. Following the debate, national polls showed a marginal boost for Harris, who gained about 2.5 percentage points, while Trump’s numbers fell by half a percentage point in the week that followed. Although Harris’s performance helped her slightly increase her lead, the poll tracker indicates that changes in the averages were mostly small, with many viewers still assessing the candidates’ overall performances and trends. As the election draws closer, the competition remains tight, and each debate will likely continue to influence voter opinions as they track the shifting trend lines in the polls.
While national polls serve as a useful guide to gauge how popular a candidate is across the country, they don’t accurately predict the result of the election due to the US electoral college system. The number of votes a candidate needs to win is given by the size of each state’s population, with a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs. To win, a candidate must hit 270 votes, which means focusing on key battleground states where the vote is often tight. In these states, polls show only one or two percentage points separating the candidates, making places like Pennsylvania, which has the highest number of electoral votes, crucial for winning the race. For instance, after Biden quit the race, Harris found herself trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in seven states known as swing states. These dynamics mean that Harris, as the Democratic nominee, has to pay close attention to swing state polls, where the reality of winning can change quickly.
It’s important to remember that there are currently fewer state polls being carried out compared to national polls, resulting in less data to analyze as the election approaches. Each poll also has a margin of error, meaning that the numbers could fluctuate, showing either higher or lower results. Since Harris joined the race, recent trends in polling averages indicate she is in a stronger position, particularly in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have traditionally been Democratic strongholds, but they turned red in 2016 when Trump won the presidency. However, Biden retook them in 2020, and Harris is now aiming to secure these crucial areas again this year. As the election unfolds, it will be vital for her to maintain this course to win the election and the presidency.
The averages seen in election forecasts are created through careful polling analysis by various organizations, such as the American news network ABC News and the website 538. These platforms collect data from individual polls that are conducted both nationally and in key battleground states. Each polling company must meet specific criteria to ensure quality control, which includes being transparent about factors like how many people were polled, when the polling was conducted, and the methodology used, such as whether interviews were conducted via telephone calls, text messages, or online surveys. By compiling and averaging these figures, analysts can provide a clearer picture of the election landscape and how candidates are performing across different demographics and regions.
Can we trust the polls?
At the moment, the numbers suggest that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is close, with only a couple of percentage points separating them in key swing states. However, predicting winners can be hard, as polls have often underestimated Trump’s support in past elections, notably in 2016 and 2020. Many polling companies are trying to fix this problem by exploring different ways to ensure their results accurately reflect the makeup of the voting population. This includes making adjustments to account for various factors that influence voter turnout. Despite these efforts, it can still be difficult for pollsters to provide entirely accurate forecasts, leading them to rely on educated guesses about what might happen on 5 November.
